SACEMA scores first in-house PhD
October 26, 2009 
30 Comments
Carel Pretorius recently became the first student working at SACEMA (DST/NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis) at Stellenbosch University (SU) to complete a PhD degree after successfully defending his PhD thesis.
His thesis was titled: “An investigation into joint HIV and TB epidemics in South Africa”. The work was supervised by Prof Kristian Müller-Nedebock of the Physics Department at SU. The event was the culmination of a long and unusual academic journey, which enabled him to take a multidisciplinary approach in his investigation of HIV and TB epidemics in South Africa. Mr Pretorius completed his first degree, in land surveying, at the University of Pretoria in 1997. He then moved to the University of the Witwatersrand and did an honours degree in pure mathematics in 1999 and an MSc in applied mathematics in 2006.
He joined SACEMA to study HIV and TB epidemics in South Africa. Using a unique data set from a thoroughly studied HIV-TB epidemic in Masiphumelele (a township near Cape Town), he developed a mathematical model which not only confirmed many expectations but also led to an unexpected result: ART treatment has the potential to control HIV transmission at a community level, indirectly also controlling the TB epidemic.
He extended this analysis to HIV-TB epidemics at a national level, and developed models to account for demographical detail, adapting tools from fields as far apart as applied demography and statistical physics. His research results can best be described as a framework for integrating available epidemiological data, locally and nationally, with a toolkit of mathematical methods which can be continuously sharpened in accordance with the ever-changing (but not necessarily improving) picture of HIV and TB epidemics in South Africa.
His work shed new light on the interplay between demographical and epidemiological processes, for example, on the role of intergenerational sex on the spread of HIV and provides methods for quantifying uncertainty in epidemiological models. The World Health Organization (WHO) have organized a special meeting to be held on 2-6 November 2009 titled: “Treatment for prevention” where a possible new intervention of using antiretroviral treatment to both treat HIV patients and to limit the spread of HIV will be debated. Mr Pretorius has been invited to attend this meeting and it is his hope that his modelling work could influence policy making at this high level.
Caption: Carel Pretorius pictured here with Prof John Hargrove, Director: SACEMA.
Very interesting topic, so I would also like to view your theses.
Very interesting topic, so I would also like to view your theses.
Is the thesis available to the public anywhere?
Is the thesis available to the public anywhere?
Well done Carel! Well deserved indeed.
Well done Carel! Well deserved indeed.
A huge congratulation to you Dr Pretorius, wishing u greater achivement in the nearest future.
A huge congratulation to you Dr Pretorius, wishing u greater achivement in the nearest future.
Thanks man! All the best in your future endeavors.
WELCOME TO THE CLUB.
Thanks man! All the best in your future endeavors.
WELCOME TO THE CLUB.
Congratulations Dr Pretorius. You are my HERO. I am Inspired.
Congratulations Dr Pretorius. You are my HERO. I am Inspired.
Congratulations Carel!
Congratulations Carel!
Well done Dr Pretorius. You really nailed it Dude
Well done Dr Pretorius. You really nailed it Dude
Congratulations! You have worked hard and you deserve to succeed in all you do. Best wishes.
Congratulations! You have worked hard and you deserve to succeed in all you do. Best wishes.
Congratulatiosn Dr Carel Pretorius. You really made us proud, keep up the good work and all the best.
Congratulatiosn Dr Carel Pretorius. You really made us proud, keep up the good work and all the best.
Know that the whole SACEMA family is proud of you,Carel. Well done.
Know that the whole SACEMA family is proud of you,Carel. Well done.
Congratulation for success you have archived. I wish you the very best of lucky in your career.
Congratulation for success you have archived. I wish you the very best of lucky in your career.
Felicitations Docteur Pretoriuuus!
Felicitations Docteur Pretoriuuus!
Congratulation
Congratulation
You are a real inspiration. Congratualtion Dr. Carel
You are a real inspiration. Congratualtion Dr. Carel